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Indicators

Listed in the table below are the key points of the debate between optimists and pessimists... bulls and bears.  Based on these observations, and on our evaluation of the leading economic indicators, we believe that the momentum in the economy is positive.  The recent decline in stocks clearly shows how nervous investors are about the future.  While we don't dismiss the points made by the Bears, we view the Bulls as having a better overall argument.  What do you think?  Send us your opinion at info@zeninvestor.org.

 

Bull Case
Bear Case


Corporate earnings growth is strong.


Consumers under pressure due to weak housing and employment.



Employment numbers now positive.


Commercial and industrial lending is still anemic.

Manufacturing activity is increasing.


Commercial real estate market still in decline.


Consumer spending is up.


Fed may raise rates soon.


GDP growth better than expected.


Debt and deficits in U.S. and Europe are growing rapidly.


Inflation is in check.


Real final sales growth is anemic.


Growth in emerging economies has returned.
 
Sovereign debt crisis getting worse.

Housing market is stabilizing.
 
Surge in the dollar will hurt exports and foreign large company profits.
Mergers and acquisitions are making a comeback.  China is starting to clamp down on its economy.
Lots of cash on the books of companies and investors.  Commodities have been weak.
 

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