Category Archives for "DIY Investing"

How to Increase Your Odds of Winning at the Investment Game

How to Increase Your Odds of Winning at the Investment Game Summary Stock market strategy can be understood using game theory. The players in this game have widely different skill sets. Profits flow from low-skilled players to those with better skills. Every investor has a strategy, even if that strategy is “I just go by […]

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Are You Paying For Useless Advice?

smart beta wizard

Are you paying for useless advice? False experts, the “Hot-Hand Fallacy”, and the “Law of Small Numbers.” Can people be fooled into believing in a non-existent expert? If so, will they then pay for what can only be described as useless advice about future chance events? The answer is yes, and this type of misjudgment […]

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Why Factor-Based Investing Works

factor-based investing 3

Why Factor-Based Investing Works Contrary to what you may have been told by experts, gurus, and sages in the investment industry, individual investors are perfectly capable of constructing portfolios that produce non-trivial amounts of Alpha (excess returns above the market return), in a persistent and systematic way. This is the conclusion reached by several recent […]

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Winners & Losers In The 1st Quarter Of 2017

barrons apr 3 2017

There were clear winners & losers in the 1st quarter of 2017. Your performance depends on where you placed your bets. If you bet on Trump making the stock market great again, you were a winner. If you bet that foreign stock markets would outperform the U.S., you were a winner. If you bet that […]

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Barron’s Highlights In Less Than 2-Minutes

barrons apr 3 2017

Highlights from Barron’s newspaper dated April 3, 2017.  See online edition here ($) Background For the serious investor, Barron’s weekly newspaper is the single best financial publication out there. It is comprehensive, inexpensive, and focused on a single topic: the financial markets. Each issue is loaded with specific investment ideas. These ideas can come from […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – March 26, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – March 24, 2017 The post-election rally is still intact, but a little wobbly right now. The S&P 500 is up 9.6% since the election. Trump’s political capital has taken a hit. Investor optimism is starting to waver, but it may return. A correction of 10% or so would probably be a […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – March 10, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – March 10, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 19% from a year ago. It’s up 10.9% since the election. Investors are mostly on board with Trump’s pro-growth agenda. This puts them in a buying mood, but they don’t have high expectations. Is the market too frothy? What is the “smart money” […]

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What are the chances that a new bear market is imminent?

Bull and bear market

What are the chances that a new bear market is imminent? I’ve seen a spike in the number of calls from clients asking this question. It’s a fair question, and one that deserves a thoughtful answer. There is no definitive answer, of course, but there are ways to make a reasonable estimate. I use a […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – February 17, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – February 17, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 22.6% from a year ago. It’s up nearly 10% just since the election. The rally is being driven by optimistic expectations. One of those is a belief that earnings will accelerate. Investors are 100% on board with Trump’s pro-growth agenda.   But first, […]

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You May Be Giving Away Half of Your Retirement Fund

retirement fund

Here’s a dose of reality for you: you may be unwittingly giving away half (or more) of your retirement fund. Our Broken Retirement System According to multiple studies about the savings habits of Americans, three out of four of us will not have enough money to retire at age 67. Not even close. Our current […]

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