Category Archives for "DIY Investing"

The Decline of Buy & Hold

Why you should embrace market-timing with open arms The so-called gold standard of investing – the near-universally revered Buy & Hold strategy – has become obsolete in the brave new world of machine-dominated markets. The value of the equity risk premium (the higher returns from owning stocks rather than bonds or cash) has been in […]

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Top Picks for 2018 from the Smart Money

Here are the top picks for 2018 from a fewof the best stock-pickers working today.Many of us like to compare our performance to the rest of the crowd, or at least to some benchmark like the Dow or the S&P. It gives us a rough idea of how we are doing in the intensely competitive […]

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How Did You Do vs. the Editors at Barron’s in 2017?

The editors at Barron’s magazine had a decent 2017. They lagged the market by a slim 1.5% margin on their long picks. They beat the market by  11.9% with their short picks. That’s hard to do in a raging bull market. Great respect for the folks at Barron’s.How did your picks perform in 2017? If […]

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Caution: Both the Smart Money and the Dumb Money are Bullish on Stocks

Another indication of rough seas aheadBullishness among retail investors jumped to its highest level in seven years, and bearishness dropped to its lowest level in three years, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey.Bullish sentiment rose to 59.8%. The last peak in bullishness was 63.3% on December 23, 2010. The 30-year […]

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Does President Trump Deserve Credit for the Bull Market in Stocks?

The short answer is yes. The stock market is a forward-looking, or discounting, mechanism. Stock prices today are based on what investors think will happen 6 to 12 months from now. Investors are optimistic about Trump’s pro-growth agenda. Whether he can deliver on his campaign promises is another matter, but for now the assumption among […]

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What Is Zen Investing?

Introduction I have spent a lifetime studying the stock market. There are things that I know for sure, and there are many more things that I don’t. One thing I know for sure is that bear markets are part of the game. All investors dread bear markets, but very few know what to do about […]

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Tracking the Shifting Sands of the Market

Today marks the end of the first full week of December. Let’s review the winners and losers with an eye towards sussing out near-term market trends. We are looking for changes in trend, with the idea of staying ahead of the curve. Winners – 1 week Short Volatility. Up 8.26% India. Up 2.16% Financials. Up […]

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The Sucker at the Craps Table

The sucker at the craps table was me – and I loved every minute of it. I remember the very first time I went to Las Vegas. I was in my late 20s, and I had just wrapped up a business trip to L.A. I planned to spend three days in Vegas, and I believed […]

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What could trigger the next bear market?

The next bear market could be a Doozy. (A technical term.) Do you remember the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008? If you do, you know it was a doozy. Economies and stock markets around the world crashed, and there was serious talk about a possible meltdown of the entire financial system. Do you think […]

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