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Get My Stock Market Outlook for Q4 2025

What my bear market and recession models are forecasting right now, 

and why most investors are too optimistic.


  • Current bear market risk level: Why my model went from LOW risk to MODERATE risk for the next 4-6 months
  • Recession model reading: 5 of 7 indicators are flashing yellow – here's what I'm watching closely
  • The mistake everyone's making: Why focusing on Fed rate cuts while ignoring inflation and jobs data could be costly
  • My current positioning: How I'm balancing opportunity with rising risks in Q4
  • 3 key indicators to watch: The specific signals that will tell us if recession risk is accelerating


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