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by Erik Conley
It has been 41 months since the recession watch model triggered an alert. The last one took the model from 40% probability of a recession within the next 6 months, to 55% probability. ...
by Erik Conley
“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more; Or close the wall up with our English dead! In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man As modest stillness and humility: But when ...
by Erik Conley
As usual, global stock and currency markets are in freefall after the surprise Brexit vote. Should you sell your stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs? No. It’s too late for that. The S&P 500 ...
by Erik Conley
Whether you realize it or not, every investment decision you make today is based on a prediction about the future. If we reduce this idea down to its most basic form, it looks ...
by Erik Conley
The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a concept developed by John Maynard Keynes and introduced in Chapter 12 of his work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), to explain price fluctuations ...
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