When I say my model portfolios have averaged 17.2% a year since 2009, that sentence is doing a lot of work. This page unpacks it so you know exactly what the number is, and what it isn't.
What the number is
Since January 2, 2009, I've published model portfolios on a weekly basis. Every position, every change, recorded and published weekly, not reconstructed after the fact. Across the 11 portfolios, the equal-weighted average annual return through December 31, 2025 was 17.2% (price only; excluding dividends).
For comparison, the S&P 500 returned roughly 14.3% annualized over the same window. In dollar terms: $10,000 growing at 17.2% for 17 years becomes about $148,500. The same $10,000 in the S&P 500 becomes about $96,600.
What the number isn't
Three things you should know before that 17.2% means anything to you:
It's a model record, not audited real-money returns. These are model portfolios. I don't have access to subscriber brokerage statements, and no accountant has audited these figures. What I can show you is the weekly time-stamped record — the portfolios were published before the returns happened, not after.
It's an average across 11 portfolios. No single portfolio earned exactly 17.2%, and no subscriber did either. Some models did better, some worse. The average tells you about the method, not about any one outcome.
It's gross of costs. The figure doesn't subtract trading commissions, bid-ask spreads, or taxes — things real investors pay. Turnover in these models is low (most weeks there are no changes), so the drag would be modest, but it isn't zero.
What this means for Zen Alpha
The Zen Alpha Portfolio launched in June 2025. It has one year of history, not seventeen years. The 17.2% is not Zen Alpha's return, and I won't pretend otherwise. What the long record vouches for is the method. The same systematic framework, applied the same way, reviewed weekly. Whether Zen Alpha matches it, time will tell.
And the obligatory line, which happens to be true: past performance doesn't predict future results; investing involves risk, especially risk of losing money; publishing model portfolios is not giving financial advice (only a registered financial advisor can provide that).
Questions about any of this? Hit reply on any email or contact me through the site. I'd rather you ask than assume.