Category Archives for "Market Commentary"

Trade Alert: VIX Calls

The VIX index is a measure of anxiety among participants in the options market. Specifically, options on the future price of the S&P 500 index. When options investors are anxious about the future for the S&P index, they increase their purchases of put options in order to hedge the downside. When they do this, the […]

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Winners & Losers In The 1st Quarter Of 2017

barrons apr 3 2017

There were clear winners & losers in the 1st quarter of 2017. Your performance depends on where you placed your bets. If you bet on Trump making the stock market great again, you were a winner. If you bet that foreign stock markets would outperform the U.S., you were a winner. If you bet that […]

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Barron’s Highlights In Less Than 2-Minutes

barrons apr 3 2017

Highlights from Barron’s newspaper dated April 3, 2017.  See online edition here ($) Background For the serious investor, Barron’s weekly newspaper is the single best financial publication out there. It is comprehensive, inexpensive, and focused on a single topic: the financial markets. Each issue is loaded with specific investment ideas. These ideas can come from […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – March 26, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – March 24, 2017 The post-election rally is still intact, but a little wobbly right now. The S&P 500 is up 9.6% since the election. Trump’s political capital has taken a hit. Investor optimism is starting to waver, but it may return. A correction of 10% or so would probably be a […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – March 10, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – March 10, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 19% from a year ago. It’s up 10.9% since the election. Investors are mostly on board with Trump’s pro-growth agenda. This puts them in a buying mood, but they don’t have high expectations. Is the market too frothy? What is the “smart money” […]

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What are the chances that a new bear market is imminent?

Bull and bear market

What are the chances that a new bear market is imminent? I’ve seen a spike in the number of calls from clients asking this question. It’s a fair question, and one that deserves a thoughtful answer. There is no definitive answer, of course, but there are ways to make a reasonable estimate. I use a […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – February 17, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – February 17, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 22.6% from a year ago. It’s up nearly 10% just since the election. The rally is being driven by optimistic expectations. One of those is a belief that earnings will accelerate. Investors are 100% on board with Trump’s pro-growth agenda.   But first, […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – January 27, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – January 27, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 20.8% from a year ago. It’s up 7.2% just since the election. The rally is being driven by investor optimism. Optimism is based on certain key expectations. One major key is earnings expectations. We look at earnings trends for each of the major […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – January 13, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – January 13, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 18.4% from a year ago. It’s up 6.3% just since the election. Has the market gotten too far ahead of itself? We take a look at market internals for clues. Are there any sectors that are still reasonably priced? We review our 2016 […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – January 6, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – January 6, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 6.4% since the election. It was up 9.5% in 2016. It’s up 17.2% on a year-over-year basis. Investors have high expectations for Trump and his agenda. They are selling Treasury bonds and buying equities. Market volatility is low, which indicates optimism and confidence. […]

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