Bear Markets, Recessions, and How to Profit From Them

1987 stock market crash

IntroductionBear Markets are the bane of the investor, with two exceptions: professional traders who specialize in short-selling, and regular investors who have a particular skill. Namely, they have learned how to tell the difference between market declines that are linked to a recession, and those that are not. Those who have mastered this skill are […]

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17 Short Sale Ideas

· Short-sellers smell blood in the water· Lists of potential shorts are circulating on trading desks· My list focuses on deteriorating fundamentalsThis article is for aggressive traders only. It’s not for buy and hold investors. It’s not for conservative asset allocators or income seekers. But even if you have no intention to sell short, it […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – August 6, 2017

Do you consider yourself a market bull, or a market bear? Many of us will dodge this question by answering “I’m neutral.” The direction of the market is ultimately determined by the immutable laws of supply and demand. If the bullish camp is more confident and aggressive, they will overwhelm the bears and drive prices […]

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My Personal Market Dashboard

My personal market dashboard is invaluable to me. It’s both my GPS and my BS detector. I designed it in a way that forces me to confront the facts on the ground, so that my writing doesn’t drift too far from reality. A little backround I have been captivated by the capital markets since I […]

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Want To Stay On Top Of The Market? Follow The Money

​One way to get some perspective on what’s going on in the market is to follow the money. (Incidentally, “follow the money” is a popular tag line, often attributed to “Deep Throat” of Watergate fame. But he never actually said that. It was first spoken by Henry Peterson, the Assistant U.S. Attorney during the Nixon […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – July 22, 2017

Highlights The post-election rally is still intact, and making new highs. The S&P 500 is up 15% since the election, and probably has more upside. Investor optimism is high, but so are the risks of a negative geopolitical event. Most industries that got a big boost post-election have now given it all back. Barron’s Editorial […]

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Critical Thinking Skill #4 – Emotional Intelligence

mike tyson

What Mike Tyson can teach us about Emotional Intelligence When I talk about emotional intelligence with clients, they often think of it as having emotional control over their investing behavior. This is true, but it’s just one aspect of this critical thinking skill. Emotional intelligence is a broader concept. I’ll try to explain it with […]

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Can A Sector Rotation Strategy Beat The Market?

sector rotation 3 wk

We look at how sectors move, relative to the market and to each other. The return behavior of sectors over time offers investors valuable information. This relative return behavior gives us clues about shifting market leadership. How you allocate equity exposure among sectors is a key driver of portfolio performance.  Introduction A popular approach among […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – June 24, 2017

market scoreboard

Highlights The post-election rally is still intact, but losing steam. The S&P 500 is up 14% since the election The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ are all making new highs. Investor optimism is still high, but starting to waver a bit. A correction of 10% or so would probably be good for this overstretched market.   […]

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