What are the chances that a new bear market is imminent?

Bull and bear market

What are the chances that a new bear market is imminent? I’ve seen a spike in the number of calls from clients asking this question. It’s a fair question, and one that deserves a thoughtful answer. There is no definitive answer, of course, but there are ways to make a reasonable estimate. I use a […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – February 17, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – February 17, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 22.6% from a year ago. It’s up nearly 10% just since the election. The rally is being driven by optimistic expectations. One of those is a belief that earnings will accelerate. Investors are 100% on board with Trump’s pro-growth agenda.   But first, […]

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You May Be Giving Away Half of Your Retirement Fund

retirement fund

Here’s a dose of reality for you: you may be unwittingly giving away half (or more) of your retirement fund. Our Broken Retirement System According to multiple studies about the savings habits of Americans, three out of four of us will not have enough money to retire at age 67. Not even close. Our current […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – January 27, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – January 27, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 20.8% from a year ago. It’s up 7.2% just since the election. The rally is being driven by investor optimism. Optimism is based on certain key expectations. One major key is earnings expectations. We look at earnings trends for each of the major […]

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Picking Stocks Based On Estimate Revisions

stock-market

Of the many things that influence a stock’s price, earnings are a key variable. But it isn’t enough to just look at the trend of earnings, or the consensus among analysts about earnings expectations for next year. The earnings metric that interests me is forward estimate revisions. When an analyst publishes a revision to her […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – January 13, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – January 13, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 18.4% from a year ago. It’s up 6.3% just since the election. Has the market gotten too far ahead of itself? We take a look at market internals for clues. Are there any sectors that are still reasonably priced? We review our 2016 […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – January 6, 2017

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – January 6, 2017 The S&P 500 is up 6.4% since the election. It was up 9.5% in 2016. It’s up 17.2% on a year-over-year basis. Investors have high expectations for Trump and his agenda. They are selling Treasury bonds and buying equities. Market volatility is low, which indicates optimism and confidence. […]

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My Stock Picks For 2017

stock picks 2016

I’m about to praise my own stock-picking prowess to the heavens, but before I do, a little background is in order. I am not a stock-picker. Well, I guess I really am a stock picker, but only for my own account and for coaching clients who ask me to pick stocks for them. I do […]

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Barron’s Highlights In Less Than 2-Minutes

barron's jan 2 2017

Highlights from Barron’s newspaper dated January 2, 2017.  See online edition here ($) Background For the serious investor, Barron’s weekly newspaper is the single best financial publication out there. It is comprehensive, inexpensive, and focused on a single topic: the financial markets. Each issue is loaded with specific investment ideas. These ideas can come from […]

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Weekly Market Scorecard – December 16, 2016

market scoreboard

Weekly Market Scorecard – December 16, 2016 The stock market is up 5.5% since the election. The Trump rally is still intact. Investors have high expectations of Trump. The bond market continues under selling pressure. Market volatility is low, which could indicate complacency. For now, let’s review the market internals for the week just passed. […]

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