In this brief market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, ETFs, and stocks that moved the market higher and those that moved lower. The idea is to identify shifting trends and emerging market leadership.
Identifying the pockets of strength and weakness allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.
May was the best month of the last 12
The old saying, "sell in May and go away" did not work this year. Had you sold on May 1 you would have forfeited a 6.2% gain for the month.
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A look at monthly returns.
This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. This chart brings into focus the powerful rally we saw in May. Investors were cheered by solid economic numbers, a slight downtick in inflation, and the prospect of a big tax cut.
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A look at drawdowns this year.
Here is a closer look at the pullbacks we've had over the last 12 months, using a drawdown chart. The current drawdown is -3.8% from the February 19 high. As you can see, most of the damage done in February - March (down 19%) has been repaired in April - May.
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A look at the bull run since it began last October.
This chart highlights the 60% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday's close. We are still below the long-term trendline and it looks to me like we may have a few more bouts of selling before this correction is over.
Major asset class performance.
Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week's returns. The best performer was US REITs and the worst performer was commodities.
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Major Indices performance
Last week the Mag 7 led the market higher, bringing the NASDAQ and Large Caps along with them. Emerging Markets gave back some of their recent gains.
Non-US market returns
This chart shows last week's returns for non-US markets. They have been leading the US so far this year, but they couldn't keep up last week. Europe and Japan are doing well, while China continues to struggle.
Equity sector performance
Real Estate (REITs) had a great week, as did most of the market sectors. Only Energy failed to show a weekly gain.
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Equity Factor Performance
This chart shows the weekly performance of equity factors like Quality, Value, Low Volatility and so on. We can see that companies with high scores for profitability and consistency of earnings growth (aka Quality) were in demand last week.
Growth vs. Value
With the Mag 7 leading the way higher last week, growth outperformed value.
Commodities
It was not a good week to be exposed to commodities. Gold gave back a small amount of its strong gains, and gasoline took a beating.
The S&P Mag 7
Here is a closer look at the Mag 7. These seven stocks are still down on a YTD basis. Faith in the AI trade is being tested, but last week we got positive earnings news for Nvidia. We passed that test with flying colors.
But the big winner this week was META (META), followed by Apple.
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The Mag 7 dominance is a drag on performance this year.
After leading the market higher for the last two years, the Mag 7 are now a drag on the S&P 500 index on a year-to-date basis. The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are up an average of 0.9% YTD.
Investors are cutting back on the Mag 7 stocks and looking for other potential AI winners that are trading at much better prices.
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The 10 best performing ETFs from last week
The big winners last week were Global Jets and Leisure & Entertainment. The wealthy class has money to burn and last week they spent some of it.
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The 10 worst performing ETFs from last week
After making the top 10 list for two weeks in a row, Cannabis is back on the loser list, down 5.7% last week alone. The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF is trading at $2.41 per share. I'm going out on a limb and saying that's a good entry point for investors who can tolerate lots of volatility.
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Momentum Stocks
National Vision Holdings (EYE) has rocketed higher this year but it's still way below its high water mark set in 2021. Investors want bargains right now, and Hertz is a good value play.
Final thoughts
It was a good week, capping off a very strong month. Can the market rise another 4% from here to make a new record high? Eventually it will, but there is still a larger than usual amount of uncertainty out there regarding tariffs, trade deals, and the tax bill. Trump and Xi are still fighting over tariffs, and things could go south there, which would probably delay our reaching the new high on the S&P 500.
To recap the week's action, investors were...
- Selling Commodities and buying REITs
- Selling Emerging Market stocks and buying US stocks
- Selling China and buying Europe
- Selling Value and buying Growth.
- Selling Energy stocks and buying Tech and Healthcare names
- Selling Cannabis and buying Leisure & Entertainment