Are you a Bull or a Bear? Or an In-Between? This article lays out both sides of the Bull v. Bear debate.
I compiled this table by reviewing the latest opinions as expressed by high-profile and respected market and economic pundits. I carefully avoided the “hair on fire” crowd.
I looked at articles published on respected outlets such as Barron’s, Bloomberg Markets, Financial Times of London, The Economist, Morningstar, CNN Money, Yahoo Finance, and other public outlets.
I also reviewed their private notes to clients, blog posts, presentations at investor conferences, and so on. I kept my personal views out of the process as best I could.
What I wanted was a balanced view from both bullish and bearish sides. I think this table does a respectable job in that regard.
Bull Case
Bear Case
Markets at record highs- SPY up 23.4% YTD | Global economic growth continues to slow |
Corporate earnings have hit bottom | Sovereign debt is at record highs |
Gold is down 5.1% since September | Cost of carrying sovereign debt is rising |
U.S. 10yr T-Bond 1.94% v. 1.47% in Sept. | Debt, equity bubbles are starting to form |
Below-zero sovereign debt $11.9tn v. $17tn | 2,300 ETFs hold $6.4tn of investor assets |
Accommodative global central bank policy | Corporate profit margins are shrinking |
US Dollar is weakening | Corporate productivity is declining |
Tariff war rhetoric is softening | Labor market is tight; wages rising |
Next recession is years away | Passive index investing drives the market |
Labor force participation is increasing | Equity valuations are highest since 2000 |
Consumers are in great financial shape | Gold is up by 20% year-over-year |
Investors are flush with cash | China growth is barely above stall speed |
Global inflation is low | US, UK, EU policymakers stuck in quagmires |
Tons of investor cash on the sidelines | Central banks stuck – can’t raise or cut rates |
Too many bears out there | Private Equity firms can’t unload their merch |
Stocks reasonably priced on forward P/E | Unicorn IPOs have become toxic |
Anyone can argue these points, of course, but that’s the idea. This list is intended to challenge your beliefs and assumptions and get you thinking about what the “other side” is talking about.
One of the basic tenets of critical thinking is to consider opposing points of view and ponder whether or not they have merit. The ability and willingness to think critically is one of he most important skills an investor can have.