Today we celebrate an impressive victory for Team Bull.
Let's briefly recap the numbers.
- 4 new highs in the last 6 trading days.
- 22% gain year-to-date.
- Up 10 of the last 15 days.
- Up 255% since the bottom in 2009.
- Up 42% since Trump took office.
Any way you slice it, this 10 year old bull market has put up impressive numbers. But I would be remiss if I didn't point out the risks that go along with the well-deserved victory dance after a historic bull run.
New Highs
4 new highs in 6 days is certainly impressive, but it's not a record. In 2013 we had 5 new highs in a row, then took a 1 day breather, and then made another 4 new highs in a row. That was a Ted Williams caliber new highs streak.
22% gain YTD
This is very impressive, but not even in the top 7 of all time. 1933, 1935, 1945, 1954, 1991, 1995, and 1997 were all years with better YTD returns than this year.
Up 10 of the last 15 days
Again, very impressive but not even in the top 10. See the above for longer streaks of up days.
Up 255% since the bottom in 2009
That's roughly 10.5 years, or about 15.3% per year compounded. No denying it's an impressive run but is it the best ever, as some pundits are saying? Here is the short list of the greatest bull markets of all time.
- 1982-2000 +666%
- 1871-1906 + 421%
- 1949-1968 + 416%
- 1921-1929 +396%
- 1932-1937 +266%
- 2009-2019 +255%
This magnificent bull market comes in at #6 on the all-time leader board. (But it ain't done yet.)
Up 42% since Trump took office
This one is a hot button, so I'll just say that Obama presided over (but did not cause, as Trump did not cause) a 44% bull market over the same time frame as Trump.