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by Erik Conley
Are we in a new, multi-year bull market? The stock market in the U.S. has started the New Year with a bang, following a fairly strong performance in the fourth quarter of last ...
by Erik Conley
In his 2005 book “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” Philip Tetlock painstakingly tracked the predictions of 284 so-called experts in the fields of politics and economics in order ...
by Erik Conley
Policy makers declare the debt crisis is fixed and an imploding housing market is “contained,” central banks flood the market with liquidity—wait a minute… does this remind anyone else of 2008? We all ...
by Erik Conley
Here are the key points of disagreement in the never-ending debate between optimists and pessimists, bulls and bears. Based on these observations, and on our evaluation of the leading economic indicators, we believe ...
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