October 14, 2026

The technical picture

If you look closely at a YTD chart of the price of crude, shown below from Yahoo!Finance, you will notice that the price topped out (at least for now) way back in April. Since then, it has stayed high, but never reached that April print. There have been two nearly successful attempts to set a new high, but both failed. 

crude oil YTD

The macro picture

Tankers loaded with crude oil are getting through the Strait of Hormuz. Large oil consumers are adapting to rising costs by changing the ways they get their oil. Different routs, and probably more expensive than the old ones, have sprouted as a way to get around the chokepoint.

What am I doing about it?

For one thing, I'm cutting my overweight to the energy sector. For another, I'm taking some profits while they're still available. I don't really care if I'm early in doing this because I would rather live to fight another day. That's my trading philosophy. 

As Warren Buffett was fond of saying, the time to be greedy is when others are fearful, not when nearly everyone is greedy (betting on higher crude prices).

About the author 

Erik Conley

Former head of equity trading, Northern Trust Bank, Chicago. Teacher, trainer, mentor, market historian, and perpetual student of all things related to the stock market and excellence in investing.

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