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Critical Thinking Skills

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How To Use Bayes’ Theorem To Forecast The Stock Market

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by  Erik Conley

Thomas Bayes(1701-1761) was an English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister who is known for formulating a specific case of the theorem that bears his name: Bayes' theorem. His contributions to math, probability, and ...

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Knowing Your ‘True’ Return on Investment Will Incentivize You To Become a Better Investor

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by  Erik Conley

Tracking Your True Annual Return on Investments:  Beyond Simple Percentage Gains Most investors focus on the wrong number when evaluating their investment performance. They either take their broker’s number (which is usually the ...

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The Greater Fool Theory

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by  Erik Conley

Who Is The Greater Fool? To put it in the crudest of terms, a greater fool is someone who is dumber than you. At the poker table, if you can’t figure out who ...

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We Want to Believe: Truth vs. Spin

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by  Erik Conley

The Truth is Out There Truth is essential in investing. Truth is the opposite of spin. Spin simply means bending the facts to fit a particular point of view or popular narrative. This ...

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Achieving Competence As An Investor

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by  Erik Conley

The Five Levels of Investing Competence I came across a paper, written in 1980, that laid out the five stages of mental activities involved in the acquisition of competence as it relates to ...

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