The results are in for ETF performance in January. As expected, the volatility produced some big winners and losers.
A quick background note
I maintain a database of ~1,000 ETFs. There are thousands more out there, but I try to separate the wheat from the chaff to make things more realistic and practical. These are ETFs that have enough liquidity and trading history to make the cut.
The Winners
Before you get your knickers in a twist about Bitcoin not actually being a proper ETF, note that it has $1.8 billion in assets under management. Bitcoin may be the most volatile investment in the bunch, but it's not to be ignored. (More comments below the table.)
Notice that two of the top 10 winners are from Ark Funds. I haven't had time to dig around their website for clues about what they're doing, but whatever it is it's working. Maybe someone can weigh in with some intel?
Palladium has been on fire since last June. Where it stops, nobody knows.
No surprise to see long-term Treasuries on the winners list. That's where the dip-buyers go to hide.
Home builders are thriving too. Low rates, plentiful money, and loosening credit standards are a perfect storm. Are NINJA loans next? Heaven forbid.
Utilities have two spots on the list, and it's understandable. Volatile markets are good for the Utes.
Lastly we have software and cloud computing. I'm a little surprised by this, given the rich valuations these companies are sporting. Maybe valuations don't matter that much in this space?
The Losers
Here we have the usual suspects. China - a no-brainer. Energy - 4 of the 10 losers are represented. Maybe it's time for a bottom in fossil fuel companies? (More comments below the table.)
Precious metals and miners of such are struggling, with the exception of Palladium. Why hasn't gold and silver spiked in response to a serious pandemic threat? I think it's a matter of convenience. It's easy to hide out in Treasuries and utilities, but buying gold & silver is more of a commitment. If the Coronavirus spirals out of control, maybe gold & silver will wake up.
Muni bonds are a real surprise to me. It could just be the specifics of the portfolio, but I don't get it. Do you?
Shipping is an obvious choice for the losers list. But coffee? What's that about? Have that many people switched to tea? Have Starbucks and Peet's stopped buying beans? I don't know about you, but my coffee consumption went up in January, not down.
Final Thoughts
January 2020 was a wild ride. As I write this, the market is having a bounce. It's only ~2% from the last high, so the bulls may again prevail. If you're a dip-buyer, the names on the losers list may offer some good ideas for you. And if you're a rally-seller, the winners list is the place to go.